Friday, January 17, 2014

Syria may agree to prisoner swaps before Geneva peace talks

 

Foreign minister also says he has asked Russia to help with 'security arrangements' in largely rebel-held Aleppo

Syria signalled on Friday that it is prepared to agree on prisoner exchanges and an Aleppo ceasefire ahead of the long-awaited Geneva II peace conference and the first meeting between the government and rebels seeking to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad, although the main western-backed opposition group struggled to decide whether to attend the talks.

Walid al-Mualem, Syria's foreign minister, announced in Moscow that he had asked his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, to help with "security arrangements" in Aleppo, the country's second city.

If successful a truce there could be used as a model for other parts of Syria, he said. Mualem also said that his government has agreed "in principle" to swap prisoners in exchange for people kidnapped by armed groups, but there would need to be an exchange of lists and a mechanism for implementation.

Russia has been pressing its Syrian ally to agree to ceasefires, humanitarian access and other confidence-building measures in advance of the UN conference, which is supposed to create a transitional government in Damascus but faces deadlock over the rebel demand that Assad step down.

Alongside its arm-twisting, however, Moscow appears to be backing Syria's insistence that the talks, due to be launched in the Swiss city of Montreux on Wednesday, should focus on combatting "terrorism" – which Assad says is backed by the west and Gulf Arab states.

Talk of Syrian readiness for humanitarian gestures appeared aimed at winning goodwill and securing tactical advantage rather than indicating a readiness for any substantive concessions to the rebels. Opposition spokesmen said they did not trust government ceasefire offers.

On Thursday a senior Syrian official said that the conflict, which has claimed an estimated 130,000 lives since March 2011, would only be settled by "the military triumph of the state". Damascus is widely seen as enjoying the upper hand in both military and political terms since the US-Russian-backed chemical weapons agreement last September and recent fighting between mainstream rebels and al-Qaida-type groups.

In the latest violence, rocket fire killed at least seven people and wounded 15 others in the Lebanese border town of Arsal, the latest in a series of salvoes to hit towns bordering Syria.

Opposition doubts about Geneva have intensified as the date for the much-postponed conference has approached. The western-backed Syrian Opposition Coalition (SOC) began meeting near Istanbul on Friday to decide whether to attend amid profound divisions and doubts over whether diplomacy is relevant to the situation on the ground. Many rebel fighting units inside Syria insist there is no point negotiating with Assad.

The SOC, headed by the Saudi-backed Ahmed al-Jarba, has come under heavy pressure from the US and Britain to attend. John Kerry, the US secretary of state, called Geneva "the best opportunity for the opposition to achieve the goals of the Syrian people and the revolution". The Saudis, Qataris and other Gulf states have also been urged by the west to use their influence with the SOC. But the Saudis in particular are sceptical and want to see Assad overthrown.

SOC sources said it was still possible a majority of its 120-strong general assembly would back going to the conference but warned that a yes vote might trigger mass resignations and destroy what remains of the group's already poor credibility. It remains adamant that Assad step down, though the Geneva I communique of June 2012 stipulates that a transitional government must be formed "by mutual consent".

Media representatives were kept corralled miles away from the site of the SOC meeting as intense discussions got under way and wrangling erupted over voting methods, Al-Jazeera TV reported.

Seeking to encourage a positive decision, Kerry said in Washington on Friday : "There is no political solution whatsoever if Assad is not discussing a transition and if he thinks he is going to be part of that future it is not going to happen. We are also not out of options with respect to what we may be able to do to increase the pressure and further change the calculus."

Another possibility is that the group would ask for the Swiss summit to be postponed.

Prospects for Geneva II have been further weakened by the decision of the National Coordination Bureau, an internal opposition group that is tolerated by Assad, to boycott the talks. That raises the possibility that the event will consist only of a grand opening ceremony but no follow up "peace process" between government and opposition.

It also remains unclear whether Iran will be invited to attend, as Syria and Russia wish. The US and Britain say it can only come if it plays a "positive role". Moscow and Tehran are Assad's closest political and strategic allies.

Reuters reported, meanwhile, that in recent weeks Russia has stepped up supplies of military equipment to Syria , including armoured vehicles, drones and guided bombs.

Syria's national reconciliation minister, Ali Haidar, has insisted the conference will not end the war. "Don't expect anything from Geneva II," he told a seminar in Damascus. "Neither Geneva II, nor Geneva III, nor Geneva X will solve the Syrian crisis. The solution has begun, and will continue through the military triumph of the state ... and through the staying power and resilience of the state and all its institutions in the face of its enemies who were betting on its collapse."

Ian Black

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Syria may agree to prisoner swaps before Geneva peace talks
Ian Black
Fri, 17 Jan 2014 20:47:56 GMT

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